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National Dominance / The Future

1 big thing: The greatest, growing threat to America
 

Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios

 

China has outlined strategies for 2018, 2025 and 2050 all designed to displace the United States as the dominant global economic and national security superpower, Axios CEO Jim VandeHei writes:

  • Why it matters: While America dawdles and bickers, China is thinking long-term — and acting now, everywhere.
  • There is no U.S. equivalent of a plan for 2025 or 2050 — or really for next year. 

China is pouring time, money, infrastructure and trade into every continent, after promising to fill the global void created by Trump’s America First. 

  • China also has the authoritarian ability to experiment at scale, steal our tech secrets and mobilize capital that no democracy can match. 

How it's happening:

  • China has tightened ties with Europe and Japan, with Trump in retreat on global trade.
  • China often forces U.S. companies to create joint ventures to do business there. American business do just that, handing half their company to often-state-controlled Chinese partners. 
  • China is spending nearly 9% of GDP on infrastructure — threetimes what America spends.
  • China has so much capacity to build that it's exporting its materials and labor to other countries to build their infrastructure.
  • China is building the largest global infrastructure project in history, the Belt and Road Initiative, as antiquated U.S. airports, bridges, roads and electricity systems crumble.
  • China is growing 3x as fast as the U.S. economy. At current projections, China's GDP will be larger than America's by 2028, Bloomberg reports.

The numbers don’t lie: China controlled 4% of the global economy in 2000, and the U.S. controlled 31%. Today, China has 15% and we have 24%.

  • With money comes power.
  • But what Republicans and Democrats should be even more concerned about is the long-term ambition of China.
  • You don’t need the CIA, or deep study in Chinese history, to understand the grand design. President Xi Jinping has laid a lot of it out for all to see.

Made in China's 2025: The plan is to dominate all futuristic advanced technologies such as robotics, AI, aviation and space, driverless or new energy vehicles.

  • In other words, to dominate the world by crushing the United States, Germany and all others in most important industries of the future. 
  • China’s 1.3 billion customers are so appealing that U.S. companies will make huge concessions for a chance to sell to them.
  • It's super focused on super-intelligence, the brains of what come next: As Axios reported in March, China is already gaining in the AI race.

China's 2050 plan trumpets the grand ambition of it all, because it puts today and Made in China 2025 in blunt context.

  • Xi wants to transform the communist country into the dominant economic and militarized nation.
  • The big picture: This shows Xi playing a long game U.S. politicians don’t play with a series of small but important moves now to lay the groundwork. 
  • Xi, 64, gave himself the power to be president for life to carry this out. 

Trump’s plan: The president has raised a lot of these issues. But the current obsession with the trade deficit only flicks at the broader and growing problems.

  • Be smart: Trump showed you can turn China into a villain on trade. But a smart politician could turn China into a unifying villain on virtually every topic — a reason to move fast and together on infrastructure, immigration, regulations, space, robotics, 5G and next-gen education. 
Replies (1)
    • Informative post. Comes down to this legendary fleecing of the USA, and all ina record time.

       

       

      trumps-signal-on-zte-helps-make-china-great-again

       

      Easy does it

      14 May 2018 By Pete Sweeney 

      Donald Trump is helping make China great again. The American president tweeted on Sunday that he would try to get Shenzhen-based telecom equipment maker ZTE “back into business, fast” after fresh U.S. punishments over sanctions violations put the $20 billion company on the ropes. The reversal undermines his trade team’s efforts to talk tough. And it’s too late now to stop the People’s Republic from seeking technology independence.

      Even among the many inexplicable Trump statements, this one manages to stand out. It flustered some of his own officials. Jessica Rosenworcel, who Trump nominated to serve a second term as a member of the U.S. Federal Communications Commission, retweeted the president’s brief remark with the comment: “This is going to require more explanation.”

      The rationale for the leniency was especially bizarre: “Too many jobs in China lost.” Trump has blamed the same country of “destroying whole American industries” and “tens of thousands of jobs” using stolen technology.

      What’s more, the U.S. Commerce Department’s case against ZTE was based on its pleading guilty to violating U.S. trade sanctions on Iran and North Korea. The administration just repudiated the treaty with Iran, and is preparing to reinstate sanctions. That makes it an odd time to let a violator accused of breaching a previous settlement on the matter off the hook.

      For countries haggling with Trump, there are a few takeaways. First, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, who was just in Beijing with a list of hard demands, is in a weak position. It’s pretty obvious where the buck stops on such matters. Get the president on the phone, and preferably catch him in a good mood.

      Second, Trump hasn’t wrapped his head around the nature of Chinese competition. American chambers of commerce aren’t bothered by the trade imbalance, but rather the way Beijing incubates industries using cheap debt and protectionism. President Xi Jinping has given no indication he will roll back his “Made in China 2025” initiative that explicitly aims at import substitution.

      Having watched ZTE nearly pushed into bankruptcy thanks to overdependence on American chips, China is accelerating efforts to develop its own semiconductor industry. Trump’s decision to back off is unlikely to alter those plans or similar ones in other industries.

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